With nearly 60% of the world’s international schools, collectively generating $40 million USD each year, Asia dominates the international schools market. However, on a subregional level, there are significant disruptions which may impact this in the future. East Asia’s market growth, for example, has slowed to just 4% over the past five years – well below the global average rate.
What are the factors behind this falling growth rate, and to what extent could this impact Asia’s leading status in international education?
Updates to Chinese educational laws
China is the world leader for international school numbers and the primary country market for East Asia. However, in 2021, school growth in China came to a complete halt. With major revisions made to the Private Education Promotion Law, it became prohibited to use foreign textbooks during China’s compulsory years of education, and this came in addition to school leaders being required to remove the word ‘International’ and any references to foreign places in their schools’ names. Many international schools closed in response to the restrictions, whilst others delayed their opening. ISC Research records twenty-two international/ private schools set to open in China, but progress towards such has remained static since 2021.
More recent challenges include China’s Patriotic Education Law which came into effect on 1st January 2024. This stipulates that, in all schools, educational resources should reflect Chinese history and culture, ideology and politics, national symbols, and promote national unity. As Anna Hawkins notes for The Guardian, the law requires international schools to follow an exclusively Chinese curriculum, creating notable challenges for schools whose brand and appeal is centered around Western-style teaching and blended international curricula.
Hong Kong’s uncertain international schools market
China’s uncertain future for international education is now extending its impact to Hong Kong, another key market in East Asia. The HKSAR government openly welcomed the introduction of China’s Patriotic Education Law, with plans now firmly in place to develop policies in Hong Kong that closely support and align with such.
These plans build upon a strict regulatory environment that enforces quotas on the numbers of local and non-local students permitted in Hong Kong international schools. Schools are required to enroll high percentages of non-local students, with foreign passport holders typically constituting 70% of the student body. However, Chinese students are no longer considered non-locals for admissions purposes, and their increasing numbers in Hong Kong schools are creating a more balanced representation between these two groups. This is creating high competition among international schools to enroll foreign students, with pressures exacerbated by a notable reduction in expatriate families since the onset of Covid-19.
Japan’s thriving schools and changing student demographics
With restrictive educational policies in place, affluent families from China and Hong Kong are looking for an authentic international school experience in neighbouring countries. Japan is proving the most popular choice in East Asia, with some international schools reporting that Chinese students now represent 50% of total received applications for school spaces. Accordingly, since 2019, Japan has seen a healthy 11% growth in student enrolment numbers since 2019, whereas China has experienced just 3% of growth, and Hong Kong has seen a -0.6% decline over the same period.
The future of international education in East Asia
The international schools market in East Asia is evolving rapidly. Around urban centres such as Tokyo, Osaka, and Nagoya in Japan, there are significant expatriate populations and prestigious school brands set establish satellite campuses, such as North London Collegiate School due to open in Kobe City in August 2025. As such, despite the challenges experienced by schools in China and Hong Kong, the steady market demand in Japan looks set to maintain East Asia’s modest growth rate, thereby mitigating any wider impacts on Asia’s leading status in international education.
For further insights into Asia’s shifts and trends, the Global Market Overview 2024 report offers global, regional, subregional, and country-level data and intelligence on the international schools market. The report is available now on the ISC Research website.
